Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 1.789630 2.078834 2.398927 2.779367 3.219142 3.711494 4.304562
2026-02-08 1.251987 1.616014 2.061873 2.647687 3.396903 4.322950 5.554896
2026-02-15 0.960761 1.351956 1.872447 2.614629 3.645184 5.025421 7.015335
2026-02-22 0.806430 1.220202 1.810323 2.711502 4.051845 5.971188 8.929922
2026-03-01 0.667231 1.075551 1.694202 2.696999 4.280146 6.682418 10.606406
2026-03-08 0.557380 0.950813 1.579994 2.655598 4.446329 7.307218 12.226988
2026-03-15 0.480432 0.862826 1.505088 2.657334 4.670176 8.039155 14.108116
2026-03-22 0.452099 0.850900 1.551271 2.864105 5.259784 9.442303 17.300421
2026-03-29 0.406068 0.798796 1.518094 2.923229 5.594702 10.447073 19.930469
2026-04-05 0.366619 0.751854 1.485887 2.976573 5.922014 11.474424 22.734671
2026-04-12 0.326186 0.696026 1.427771 2.969757 6.130220 12.301786 25.264549
2026-04-19 0.287706 0.637716 1.355642 2.922940 6.249665 12.968181 27.559828
2026-04-26 0.241493 0.556911 1.228612 2.749899 6.098465 13.101298 28.847220
2026-05-03 0.209033 0.501066 1.146139 2.660410 6.113567 13.584444 30.958642
2026-05-10 0.186482 0.463955 1.098800 2.641239 6.280061 14.412885 33.947019
2026-05-17 0.175052 0.451185 1.104399 2.744120 6.738842 15.946172 38.746741
2026-05-24 0.157717 0.420863 1.064070 2.731175 6.922559 16.878537 42.280252
2026-05-31 0.140985 0.389153 1.015390 2.689844 7.030549 17.647135 45.530598
2026-06-07 0.128509 0.366476 0.985700 2.691805 7.246752 18.704902 49.648118
2026-06-14 0.126922 0.373176 1.032642 2.901294 8.029373 21.272138 57.975620
2026-06-21 0.118706 0.359852 1.024459 2.961200 8.424157 22.905747 64.095520
2026-06-28 0.110999 0.346678 1.014681 3.015237 8.811233 24.572000 70.543561
2026-07-05 0.101807 0.327486 0.985090 3.008336 9.026799 25.808355 75.986712